Myrtle Beach Real Estate by Mirela

I will answer all these questions within the next two days. 

You don't have to answer all the questions at once.  Tackle the ones you can.  You can post answers to some of the questions and return with more later. 

The more answers we garner, the better our understanding will be.  Markets impact each other.  If your owners can't sell their property in New Jersey, they can't buy that home in Myrtle Beach... 

If you have other questions you think would be helpful, please add those to the twelve already posted. 

It's a start; it will hopefully be a step in the right direction.

GREAT IDEA! Most agents don't have a handle on this data, and cannot even begin to compile. I have most of it at my fingertips. I'm a numbers freak.

Schuylkill County, PA (small rural county in NE Penna).

•1. How many properties do you have for sale in your MLS? Residential = 911

•2. How does that figure compare with last year's and the year before? roughly the same

•3. What is the sales activity per month on single family homes, condos, multi-family, land and commercial? Single family = 50/month

•4. What is the absorption rate for all of the above?

•5. How does that compare with last year and the year before? Jan 09 compared to Jan 08 was down 50%!

•6. How do January's sales figures compare with January of last year? How does that compare with November and December of last year? Down 50% from Jan 08. Down 45% from Nov/Dec 2008. Januaray sucked.

•7. What is the best selling product in your market? Average middle class homes from $75-140,000

What is the worst selling product? Why? Multifamilies and Land. Nobody's lending for new construction, and investors are spooked.

•8. How much of your market is foreclosure related? How many foreclosures have occurred in your market in January and February?

•9. What are your observations on local financing?Good buyers are still getting loans, but they're taking longer (45+ days) We have 100% financing through USDA loans that are excellent products.

•10. What are your observations on local appraisals? Most appraisers seem to be erring on the low side. They're afraid to overprice now

•11. What is the best advice you would give a Buyer in your market? Be reasonable. Don't make ridiculous demands or you may tick off hte seller and not get the house. Not all sellers are desperate to sell.

•12. What is the best advice you would give a Seller in your market? Be patient. Please. And don't overprice. If anything, slightly underprice and you may still get a bidding war. I have a new listing at $65,000 for a small single, just entered into the mls yesterday. It has 7 showings today and is likely to bring multiple offers before the week is through.

Great idea Mirela, I'll forward a link to my mom, the realtor.  : )

Excellent idea every realtor should look at these and create a true picture for their area and where they want to be in projections.

Erica:  I LOVE Numbers Freaks!!!  (I am one myself).

Thank you so much for your contribution!  It will be part of next week's blog.

Caron:  Thank you for your comment!   Will you participate in this?

Chris:  Yes, thank you!

Erica:  I love your advice to Buyers and Sellers!  What is the foreclosure rate in your area?

Higher than the national average. 1/10 mortgages are 30+ days behind nationwide. We've got higher than that, but I am not sure enough to quote. I just got my CDPE and am in the thick of it now (Certified Distressed Property Expert). It's a tough niche to work for many reasons. Average home price here is $95,000. We sell about 900 houses a year county-wide and have way way too many agents still. I wish the ranks would think even more. Too many chasing too few deals.

Yikes those are some numbers there Mirela but I'll join in the party - bring your calculator & golf pencil!

Do you want us to put them here?  Or post them on our site & you link them? 

Lyn:  Just post them here, the way Erica did and I will copy and paste from here.  You can just give the number of the question and the answer.  Thank you!  This will help all of us, and just answering these questions will give each of us a better handle on our own market.

Erica:  Yikes!  I know what you mean; it takes me a while to comb through our own Horry County Lists, but it's well worth the effort.

Mirela--Once again the incentive I needed.  I have been compiling #'s since the first of the year and I still don't have all the things you are asking for!  I'll sit down tonight and try to put a formal compilation together!  I'll be back to you later!

Tamara:  Good job!  Glad to hear it!  I have derived more benefit from knowing my numbers than from anything else.  You'll see what I mean after you practice answering those questions for a while...

BTW: Although I am good at pulling the numbers for my own edification, I have been inconsistent with posting them on AR, where they can keep things organized and garner me new leads.  This will be an incentive for me to publish these numbers with regularity.

Awesome list Mirela! A few of these questions make me think outside my normal "marketing  report" box. I'll be back shortly with my answers.

Great Debbie!  I'm glad you think so!  With enough participation, this could indeed help paint a more congruous overview of the market.

Hi Mirela !

Well right now we have 3583 Single Family Homes on our MLS, 1744 Condos/coops/Townhouses, and 619 multi family homes. Thats a total of 5946 residential homes currently active on our MLS.

I believe a year ago we were closer to 5000, and with the weaker sales that we experienced, I'm not surprised the inventory has piled up a little.

January sales for the 5 or 6 towns I work mostly in were almost identical to last year.

The MAJOR difference was that the sale prices were considerably lower, to the tune of 8-10% on average.

Foreclosure and Short Sale listings continue to be prevolent, and increasing. I believe we are at around 40% of all listings have some form of bank intervention.

Local financing differs drastically from broker to broker as I have seen. I had 3 lenders deny buyers loans last year, only to get them approved by a stronger broker.

My best advice for Buyers is to make sure their credit scores are as high as they can possibly be - start now if they havent been already.

Sellers should be prepared for anything - there's no rhyme or reason - HOWEVER - my best advice to them is to prepare their home better before they put it on the market, dont "try it AS-IS", if it can give a better first impression with more legwork upfront.

These are the things you should be writing about anyways if you want to get business from your blog:)

Mirela - Great idea to open dialog among Realtors - keep each other informed - but I'd agree with Bill, we'd better know these numbers as a matter of habit if we're in the business.

Thanks for raising such good questions.  The media is making it sound like there isn't any lending going on but our mortgage brokers in my office in Tucson are BUSY.  And, weekly they provide us reports of what is going on and about the requirements. It sounds to me that a lot of lending is going on.  Additionally, the media has reported the national statistics for the drop in the median price of a home.  In mid Tucson is about $179K right now which is making homes affordable and people are now buying.

I look forward to reading the other blogs regarding your questions.

Hi Mirela --

What blog do you plan on posting the results on?

How are you going to index/catalog it?  By state/metro area or ???  I'm wondering how easy it will be to navigate to a specific state/city.

I'll take Contra Costa County, but need till the weekend, if that's soon enough?  THANKS for spurring this on, how right you are that the press is defeating us right and left with their flailing for information and never quite putting it all together.  Terrylynn

A great idea -- however, I am not sure how accessible that information is in my area -- I'll take a look -- and see what I can find out.

I'm in for Huntsville Alabama!  This is great blogging material and I have been hit or miss with it...so, this puts a fire under my fanny to get it done.  You are a genius!  Count me in.  I'll be back with a few answers for you.

Chris:  Lord, have mercy, I have no idea, but I'll figure it out.  I usually jump in the water, then learn how to swim...

•1.     Finding the answers to these questions will certainly give you the right vantage point to your market and position you as the Local Expert.

•2.     Posting your answers on Active Rain AND Localism every month will go a long way to enforce your unique "Local Expert" Internet presence.

•3.     I will post it all in alphabetical order by state and locale.  As these reports grow too large for my britches, I'm sure the geniuses behind Active Rain will give me a hand with it.  

•4.     This is certainly a strong start.  Within 3 months we could have an amazing opportunity to illustrate the markets accurately.

This is a great idea.  I'll post Albuquerque stats tomorrow. 

In the interest of time, do you mind if I start with some generalities?

Here goes... these apply to the area of metro Phoenix that I work the most, the east & southeast valley.

•1. How many properties do you have for sale in your MLS?

Only six right now. I prefer buyer-brokering above listings. (Wait... you were asking for the whole MLS? 41,107 single family homes)

•2. How does that figure compare with last year's and the year before?

I only started taking on listings with any regularity a year ago. (for the whole market- I'd have to check deeper on that one.)

•3. What is the sales activity per month on single family homes, condos, multi-family, land and commercial?

Activity depends on price range. Above the FHA lending limits... especially in homes above $350k- sales are very slow. In the $200's they are improving. Homes below $150k are moving briskly. Condos are a nearly-dead market... ditto for land... commercial properties have begun to slow down tremendously.

•4. What is the absorption rate for all of the above?

I'd have to check... then again there is a difference per neighborhood. I have six neighborhoods where prices are increasing as inventory decreases. Most of the market has an increasing inventory.

•5. How does that compare with last year and the year before?

The inventory is higher this year... which is bringing home prices down.

•6. How do January's sales figures compare with January of last year? How does that compare with November and December of last year?

Sales are up... but with lower prices, the average agent is making less in spite of the upturn in sales. I'm seeing many more clients in these first two months of '09 vs. the last two months of '08.

•7. What is the best selling product in your market? What is the worst selling product? Why?

Best selling is foreclosures... it's more than half the market. The high end is not moving well.

•8. How much of your market is foreclosure related? How many foreclosures have occurred in your market in January and February?

Most of central Phoenix is foreclosure related. A few of the cities of the southeast valley have fewer foreclosures. Though there is foreclosure activity across the country- much of it is centered in four regions... two oceans (California and Florida) and two deserts (Phoenix & Las Vegas).

•9. What are your observations on local financing?

The market is much improved. Rates are great and the lenders are lending.

•10. What are your observations on local appraisals?

Varied. It's almost impossible to do a comp with any level of long term accuracy. We're checking the market much more often for any changes.

•11. What is the best advice you would give a Buyer in your market?

Don't spend to the last penny of your approval and try to buy homes that are 70 to 80% of current market value.

•12. What is the best advice you would give a Seller in your market?

Hold on as long as you can. Our market is improving and you may be seeing a rise in home value as soon as the end of this year. This is most true for the areas near the main cities. Those on the fringe will see low prices for longer.

Okay, I 'm in for my Palm Beach County. I'm like Liz - I need to commit and I do it. I can give separate stats for the Island of Palm Beach too!

Give me a deadline date. You have to post it.

I forgot to leave my name. I'm the one in for Palm Beach.

Great Idea!  I'm too pooped tonight to work on it but I'll start tomorrow. 

Mirela--It's true. Clients love to hear the numbers ticked off as if you're a computer coming up with calcs on the spot.  I have many of these, but not all, so I'll finish up tonight.  It'll take my mind off the 16 year old who passed her drivers test today and then promptly left with my car!

Mirela - Did you know your TextMe widget will stop working as of February 24?

Our Activity is up overall, pending numbers up by about 100 over last year. Eager to see how Feb. sales compare to last years. I myself have quite a few buyers I am working with, more so than last year at this time.

I'm not giving up. I'm logged in. I'll report on Palm Beach

thanks so much

Hi Mirela;

Great post, I am not sure how that information is accessible to some agents, but I think it is a great idea.

Anthony, if you are not sure how to access the information for your area, call your local association of Realtors and ask the President for assistance and go to the County Assessor's office and ask to speak with the big boss.  You'll find out plenty.  Please come back and post the results here.

Scott:  Thanks for the reminder!  I'll have to take that gadget out.

Linda:  yes, we need Palm Beach.

Oh, Tamara, I feel your pain!  Mine is about to embark on the same journey, only she's not taking my beamer! 

Hi Mirela - I'm proud to stand alongside you as a numbers freak. Will have specific answers for you in a few days, but here's a quick stat in the meantime: Out of 20,100 single family listings in the Las Vegas valley, 35% are REOs, and 33.7% are short sales ... lots of buying opportunities!

John, those are some frightening numbers...  We fare only slightly better than that.  I'll be posting my numbers next week. 

My market is Dutchess County, New York.  We are about 2 hours north of New York City. The current average selling price for a single family home here is $372,413.  Our major employer is IBM, although we have a big population that commute south towards the city to work.

•1. How many properties do you have for sale in your MLS? Residential = 1,603

•2. How does that figure compare with last year's and the year before? 2007 1,772 2008 1,771

•3. What is the sales activity per month on single family homes, condos, multi-family, land and commercial? Single family = 86/month.  Condos =27/per month don't have stats for others

•4. What is the absorption rate for all of the above?

•5. How does that compare with last year and the year before? Jan. 2008 sales 89 for single family homes.  Jan 2007 sales 135 for single family homes

•6. How do January's sales figures compare with January of last year? How does that compare with November and December of last year? Jan. 2009 was only down 2.3% from Jan. 2008

•7. What is the best selling product in your market? Single Family homes $300-$400,000.

What is the worst selling product? Why? Land.  Our area was market by some incredible new developments/new construction over the past several years.  With the market decline and funding and job insecurity builders have basically halted all new construction projects.

•8. How much of your market is foreclosure related? How many foreclosures have occurred in your market in January and February? About 10%

•9. What are your observations on local financing? Tough!  Buyers need significant down payments unless going FHA and their credit scores need to be high! 

•10. What are your observations on local appraisals? Appraisers are being extremely cautious and are having a hard time finding comparable home sales that are current (less than 3 months old).  Additionally I am experiencing banks not accepting an appraisal from one appraiser they are often ordering two before approving the loan

•11. What is the best advice you would give a Buyer in your market? If you find a house you love, mortgage rates are still good.  Make a fair offer based on comparable home sales and go for it!

•12. What is the best advice you would give a Seller in your market?   Don't sell unless you have to.  If you do sell you have to price competitively and forget what your neighbor got last year.  Don't be offended by low ball offers they are a by-product of the market and if nothing else opens lines of negotiating.

**statistics taken from Mid-Hudson Multiple Listing Service.

Tomorrow, but I will participate I like the premise.

Thanks for the effort, Mirela. I'm not a Realtor, but I once stayed at a Holiday Inn Express. I'll be interested in seeing what the numbers show.  It could be fascinating and, I suspect, will show us trends we're not seeing in news reports.

Great post!

I will get the numbers for Johnson County, Arkansas together this week end.

This is really interesting.

Jeanette Hemmer, Re/Max Plus Realty, Clarksville, Ar

Good idea. I am happy to report for Colorado Springs and the Pikes Peak region.

Kelly: I used to live in Colorado Springs.  I had a store in that mall where you could see Pikes Peak from the wall of windows in the food gallery.  What a beautiful place that is!

Mirela, I love it.  I just got home from showing.  Will work on it tomorrow.

I agree with someone's comment - too tired to tackle it tonight -but tomorrow.... Definately

Mirela, I love this idea! I'm going to do some research and post tomorrow. I have 6 listings, three are foreclosures, BUT, LeRoy Houser who was just in Lynchburg to teach a class? He turned down an offer from our board to come teach a Short Sales and Foreclosure class BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH OF THEM IN OUR MARKET!!!!

Hi Mirela, I will work on St Joseph, over the weekend.  We are in a very good market here.  Good houses priced right SELL.

I'm terrible with carrying numbers in my head, but I run stats and year-to-year comparisons every month and know where to find the Excel spreadsheet on my computer at the touch of a few buttons.

Here's more clarity on the Phoenix metro area... this according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service as of 2/19/2009 9:30 p.m.

Total Listings: 50,666

Single Family Homes: 41,111

60% have special conditions (short sale, preforeclosure, auction, bank owned, etc.)

Short Sales: 25%

Bank Owned: 23%

Aloha Mirela!

You always have the BEST ideas - we probably wouldn't have done this had it not been for you! Our response was WAY to long & detailed to post here in a comment- but you (and everyone else;) can check it out here: Coachella Valley's Real Estate Market (Dissected).

We're looking forward to everyone's participation!

Pederson Properties,

Hi Mirela-- Instead of taking up a ton of room here, I posted Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows stats for January.

Mirela, Great idea. It will take me a day or two but I'll get back to you with the data from my market. Thanks for the inspiration. It will be nice to see how my area compares to others areas represented by AR members.

Awesome idea! That's exactly what I've been looking for for my monthly neighbourhood stats. Thanks!

great questions- I will follow up and post this weekend

Mirela - Great questions.  I'll start working on them and post!  Thanks!

I have just activated a new group, formed solely for the purpose of this endeavor:

SNAPSHOT OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

I will compile the blog and extract the data from the comments here and from the posts made available on the new group,

SNAPSHOT OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

The first blog will deal with January 2009, the next one will be February and after March, I will also ask for quarterly statistics and compile that blog. 

I thank you very much for being so concerned and pro-active.  You are such Leaders!  I am so proud to be associated with you! 

THANK YOU!

Well you certainly generated some great responses here Mirela!

I'd love to participate, Mirela, but I'm not sure how to approach it.  Chuck is already addressing the entire metro Phoenix area, and the towns I focus on are contained within those stats.  I'm still thinking, but for your intent and purposes, I don't know if it would be helpful or useful to furnish you with numbers on Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert or Queen Creek, Arizona.  What do YOU think?

Excellent post.  I would like to contribute, but I am traveling in NY today and have limited opportunities to reply.  I will book market it and try to get a response for you shortly.

Mirela,

I don't see anyone answering the question about absorption rates.  Could it be that there are some who do not know how to calculate that number or even what it might represent?

Aloha Mirela!

Brian's comment reminded me to post the absorption equation as a helpful cheat sheet!

Figuring Absorption Rate:

1. # of listings on market = 2003
2. # sold last month = 507
3. # sold (507) X 12 (months) = 6,084

6,084 (divided by) 52 (weeks) = 117 units per week

2003 (total Actives) divided by 117 = 17.1 weeks is our Absorption Rate for 2009

If you would like more information regarding Absorption Rates, visit Kristal Kraft's  Blog: How Absorption Rate is figured!

Best regards,

Pederson Properties

I like easy:

The Absorption Rate is the ability of the real estate market to sell off all of the houses that are for sale. For example, if 100 homes are sold every month and there are 1200 homes for sale then it will take 12 months to sell all of those homes. If there are 2400 homes for sale then the absorption rate will be 24 months or 2 years.

If you would like to sell in 12 months then you need to take the absorption rate into account. In the above scenario with 2400 homes for sale, we know that only 1/2 of them will sell in the next 12 months.

To price a property correctly it would have to be in the lower 50% of the price range for similar properties in order for it to sell in the next 12 months. To sell in the next 6 months it would have to be priced in the lower 25% of the competition.

Or this:

For example, if there are 100 homes on the market and 25 homes went under contract in the past month then the absorption rate will be 4 or 4 months. Theoretically, it'll take 4 months to sell all existing homes if no new inventory would come on the market.

Or this:

Absorption rates are determined by a simple formula of the number of homes for sale on the market divided by the number of homes sold in a month, week etc. For example a monthly absorption rate in a market with 100 homes for sale, that sold 10 homes over the last month would yield a 10 month absorption rate or it would take 10 months to sell all of the inventory of houses on the market

One more interesting tid bit about absorption rates:

Absorption rates that yield 7 months or above are typically defined as a buyers market, where 1 to 4 months are considered a sellers market and 5 or 6 months is considered a balanced market.

With math, as with everything else, once there is a logical understanding of the issue at hand, we can figure out the correct answer in many different ways, some easier than others.  

Nicely done Mirela - beautiful and smart, you must frighten the hell out of most men! 

BTW - In my pre-real estate life, I was an electronics engineer, so you don't frighten me.

•1. How many properties do you have for sale in your MLS?-Residental in town   439

•2. How does that figure compare with last year's? (2008) 738

•3. What is the sales activity per month on single family homes -Residential in town 31

•4. What is the absorption rate for all of the above ?  61 

•5. How does that compare with last year and the year before? (2008) 52

•6. How do January's sales figures compare with January of last year? down 59 versus 31

•7. What is the best selling product in your market? SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL IN TOWN        

•9. What are your observations on local financing?  FINANCING AVAILABLE-GOOD RATES

•10. What are your observations on local appraisals?  NO PROBLEMS OCCURING

•11 What is the best advice you would give a Buyer in your market? NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!  GOOD SELECTION, SELLER INCENTIVES, GOOD RATES

•12. What is the best advice you would give a Seller in your market?  PRICE THE PROPERTY IN TODAYS MARKET

Mirela, Thank you for pushing me to do this. I tailored it for my outside blog, so some is a bit different. I calculated the absorption rate for single family homes here, and it is a good thing I was leaning back on the couch with my laptop! But since I am an optimist, think of the weeks and weeks I have to make money selling these listings!

My advise to homebuyers, now is the time. I am pushing a great first time homebuyhers program, through the Housing Development Fund. A very good program, I had my daughter use it.

For sellers, your propert MUST be priced correctly. In addition to that, the house MUST show well. A home has to stand out. Clean, clear, throw out, whatever it takes.

Anyway, here are my stats:

New Milford Connecticut. Absorption Rate for single family homes only: 124.5 weeks.

Single Family Active Listings:   258, 9 of which are currently under deposit

Single Family Pending:           14

Condo, Active Listings:           71, 5 of which are currently under deposit

Condo Pending:                    8

I looked at single family and condo sales, from 2006, 2007 and 2008. Here is what I found.

2008 SALES

SF Sold 210 (down 28% from 2007)          Condo Sold 86 (down 32.2% from 2007)

Average Market Time

SF 139 days (up 21% from 2007)             Condo 114 (up 28.08% from 2007)

Average List Price

SF $369,189 (down 14.79% from 2007)     Condo $206,745 (up 1.78% from 2007)

Average Sale Price

SF $375,587 (down 9.94% from 2007)       Condo $204,263 (up 2.26% from 2007)

2007 SALES

SF Sold 292 down 7.3% from 2006)           Condo Sold 125 (down 2.3% from 2006)

Average Market Time

SF 115 days (up 23% from 2006)              Condo 89 (up 25.35% from 2006)

Average List Price

SF $433,270 (up 3.14% from 2006)           Condo $203,166 (up 8.4% from 2006)

Average Sale Price

SF $417,063 (up 2% from 2006)                Condo $199,736 (up 8.6% from 2006

2006 SALES

Single Family Sold: 315, Av Market Time: 93, Av List Price: $420,066, Av Sale Price: $408,893

Condo Sold: 130, Av Market Time: 71, Av List Price: $187,425, Av Sale Price: $183,936

Well you've really gotten something going here. Great job! Thanks for posting this blog originally and making us all think.

Erica: Thank you!

I need to sit down and post my own figures.  I'm off on a new tangent right now and it's consuming the very little discretionary time I have left.  I have a hypothesis, but I have not proved it yet and it has pushed me off track. 

A lot can be gained from analyzing the numbers.  I'm glad you agree.  I think I need to put your figures on a spreadsheet to understand them at a glance.  I like the way you broke down your figures.  I'll take note.

9 under deposit, 14 pending...  I'm not sure I understand.  In our area, once we have a fully executed contract waiting to close we call it "pending sale".  What is the difference in your market between "under deposit" and pending?

Dona:  Good job; Thank you!

Brian:  That's good to know!  Your lovely compliment was much appreciated!  Fortunately, my goofy side pulverizes any possible intimidation. 

i use a spreadsheet for my monthly market data, broken out by school districts. Talk about time consuming!

Mirela, I will have some stats for Greater Metro Oklahoma City this evening...

With smiles,

Bo

Mirela, here it is. Oklahoma metro is still a good market but what affect us is the national news of gloom and doom. Lots of buyers or investors are on the fence. We were almost dead for Nov, Dec and part of Jan. However, I have noticed some action for the last three weeks, people are asking, looking and visiting open houses. I believe that the combination of historically low interest rates and tax credits, incentive of homeownership which means equity, tax ded, investment etc...will create much more interest and action...

With smiles,

Bo

How is your market today?

•1.       How many properties do you have for sale in your MLS?  8650 as of Jan 09

•2.       How does that figure compare with last year's and the year before?  Very similar

•3.       What is the sales activity per month on single family homes, condos, multi-family, land and commercial? Single family - approx. 1100

•4.       What is the absorption rate for all of the above? Residential approx. 1100 units/mo 

•5.       How does  that compare with last year and the year before? Very similar

•6.       How do January's sales figures compare with January of last year? How does that compare with November and December of last year?  Very similar 

•7.       What is the best selling product in you market? What is the worst selling product? Why? Best selling are single family, worst - duplexes

•8.       How much of your market is foreclosure related? How many foreclosures have occurred in your market in January and February? 

•9.       What are your observations on local financing? Good, but lenders are much stricter, to obtain a good rate they should have 720 FICO to start, compared to previously being 620

•10.   What are your observations on local appraisals? Holding steady. Our LP to SP is consistent about 97%

•11.   What is the best advice you would give a Buyer in your market? Now is the time because of interest rates, selection and incentives

•12.   What is the best advice you would give a Seller in your market? Price it at market value and stage it properly

BTW, forgot to ask, do you want to get the my market updated by a certain date? Did you pick one already? Or you will email reminders?

Talk to you soon,

Bo